According to polling, election experts, and Democratic messaging, Republicans will most likely retake the House and Senate.
David Wasserman, a redistricting expert and senior editor of the Cook Political Report, believes the GOP will have an enormous edge in midterm elections based on his experience. Democrats consider 19 House seats to be toss-up districts. Many of these areas are in the Rust Belt, such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This part of the country has been damaged by President Biden’s 40-year high inflation and fentanyl flooding through the southern border.
The GOP has a 10-point lead in polling. On Thursday, Republicans were favored by nine points in generic ballot polling (48 percent to 39 percent). The generic ballot is significant because it reflects congressional Republicans’ popularity across the country regardless of who becomes the party’s nominee.
Generic polling is especially crucial in Senate elections, where the campaigns are national in scope and attract widespread media attention. According to recent polling of individual Senate races, Republicans are doing really well in swing states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Nevada.
Republicans only need to pick up one seat to retake the Senate. While they have more Senate seats to protect than Democrats, Republicans also have the benefit of running against an unpopular president. Biden’s national approval rating in April was 33 percent. According to additional polling, 49.9 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of the president, while just 20 percent approve strongly.
Third: Democrat Rhetoric
Another reason why Republicans may win in November is due to the Democrat’s rhetoric. The political tide has turned against the Democratic establishment and its allies in Washington, DC, according to numerous reports from the Associated Press. “Biden’s election-year challenge: Blame GOP for nation’s ills,” read the headline of an AP story published on Friday.
The economy will not likely recover before the midterms. According to economists, there is a 35 percent chance that the United States will enter a recession between 2022 and 2023. Americans do not believe that the country’s economy will be able to recover before the midterm elections.