According to the majority of experts surveyed, the U.S. will experience a recession by the middle of next year.
According to a survey conducted by the National Association of Business Economists, 72% of economists believe that a recession will have started by the middle of next year, if not sooner.
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, 19% of people believe that the United States is now experiencing a recession. The third quarter will see the beginning of the recession, according to 9% of economists, and the fourth quarter, according to another 16%. That represents 44% of respondents who believe the US will experience a recession this year.
Another 28% predict that the U.S. economy will be in a recession in the first half of next year, with 22% anticipating it to begin in the first quarter and 6% anticipating it to begin in the second.
According to 20% of respondents, the US won’t see a recession until the second half of 2023 or later.
73 percent of those polled expressed “not very much confidence” or “not any confidence” that the Federal Reserve would be able to achieve its two percent inflation target over the next two years without starting a recession. 51 percent of respondents, a majority, indicated they had zero confidence in the Fed’s ability to reduce inflation without a recession. Only 3% of economists claim to be “extremely convinced” that the Fed can reduce inflation without inducing a recession. Ten percent feel confident, while 14% are just a little confident.
Even said, the economists polled are far more positive about the direction of monetary policy than they were earlier this year. A record 77 percent of people in March thought that monetary policy was excessively stimulative. Now, 44% believe the monetary policy is “too stimulative,” while 46% think it is “about right.”
The NABE conducted its semi-annual member poll between August 1 and August 9, which yielded the findings. A total of 198 people responded.
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